Chinese obesity drugs crowd the GLP 1 GIP class as three await NMPA decisions

Three Chinese obesity drugs from the same class are now waiting on regulators in Beijing. A year end tally by BioPharma APAC lists HRS9531, olatorepatide and BGM0504, all injected GLP-1 and GIP dual agonists, as filed with China's National Medical Products Administration, with mean weight loss of 17.7% to 19.2% at 48 to 52 weeks. Those figures come from separate trials and cannot be ranked. This explainer sets out what is filed, what the numbers mean, and what the filings could change for the peptide incumbents.

Three dual agonists sit with the NMPA

The oldest file belongs to Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. Its HRS9531, a once weekly injection that acts on both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, has been under NMPA review since September 2025, according to the BioPharma APAC tally. The China Phase 3 trial, NCT06396429, reported a mean weight loss of 17.7% at week 48 under the treatment policy estimand, or 16.3 points more than placebo. Kailera Therapeutics holds rights outside Greater China as part of a three asset package. The tally puts that deal at 110 million dollars in upfront and near term payments, up to 5.725 billion dollars in sales milestones and a 19.9% equity stake for Hengrui. Kailera started a global Phase 3 programme, KaiNETIC, in 2026.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical's olatorepatide, coded HS-20094, followed in June 2026, when the NMPA accepted its new drug application. The tally lists it as a biased dual agonist, a design meant to favour some receptor signals over others. In the LIGHTEN Phase 3 trial, NCT06839664, weight fell 18.7% at week 48 under the treatment regimen estimand against 2.5% on placebo, and 19.3% under the efficacy estimand. Regeneron licensed rights outside mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau for 80 million dollars upfront and up to 1.93 billion dollars in milestones, and plans a global Phase 3. BrightGene's BGM0504 was also accepted for review in June 2026. Its Phase 3, NCT06704581, reported 19.2% at week 52, but the release gave no placebo figure.

Why HRS9531 and olatorepatide cannot be ranked

On paper the three results sit within a point and a half of each other. In practice that gap is smaller than the noise around it. The tally notes that the spread across the three is narrower than the difference between two estimands inside a single trial. Olatorepatide shows the effect well, because the same LIGHTEN data give 18.7% or 19.3% depending on how people who stopped the drug are handled. The treatment policy estimand counts every randomised patient, including those who quit, so it runs lower. HRS9531 reports under that stricter rule, while BGM0504 reports a full analysis set figure with no placebo arm shown, which makes its larger number the hardest of the three to read.

The tally notes that the spread across the three is narrower than the difference between two estimands inside a single trial.

Trial design adds more noise. The three studies used different doses, durations and populations, and many Chinese obesity drugs are tested in people with a lower average body mass index than Western trials enrol, the tally says. None of the figures comes from a head to head study. For context, it cites Innovent's mazdutide, an Eli Lilly molecule approved in China for weight management in June 2025, which reported 18.55% at week 60 in its GLORY-2 trial. That result helps set the bar the new duals must clear in Chinese practice. The tally does not report discontinuation or side effect rates for the filed duals, so a fair tolerability comparison has to wait for full papers.

How the Asia Pacific obesity pipeline adds up

The filed Chinese obesity drugs sit inside a bigger count. BioPharma APAC lists 30 assets discovered by Asia Pacific companies that were in registered human trials for obesity or weight management as of 31 October 2026. Twenty one originated in mainland China, six in Korea, two in Japan and one in India, and the outlet found none from Australia, Taiwan or Singapore. Its rule is origin, not ownership, so a molecule licensed to a Western company still counts where it was discovered. Three such molecules reached the market this year. Orforglipron, discovered by Chugai and developed by Eli Lilly, won US approval on 1 April 2026 and a positive CHMP opinion in October, as set out in our orforglipron CHMP report.

The other two are peptides. Sciwind's ecnoglutide, a weekly GLP-1 receptor agonist, cleared the NMPA for weight management in March 2026, and Hanmi's efpeglenatide became Korea's first home grown obesity drug in October, a decision covered in our efpeglenatide approval story. Behind the filed duals, the tally counts at least seven more assets that have completed or are running Phase 3. Two further GLP-1 and GIP duals, Raynovent's RAY1225 and Huadong Medicine's HDM1005, have announced positive Phase 3 results without releasing figures. Deals follow the science in this Asia Pacific obesity pipeline. Thirteen of the 30 assets have a licensee outside their home region or a European partner, and disclosed upfront payments come to roughly 1.04 billion dollars.

What Chinese obesity drugs change for semaglutide and tirzepatide

Semaglutide and tirzepatide still set the benchmarks for weight loss, price and supply. The filed duals share tirzepatide's two receptor design, and their headline numbers fall in a similar range at about one year, though no trial has compared them directly. The tally argues that when five companies converge on one mechanism, competition shifts to price, supply and dosing interval rather than the weight loss figure. That is an analyst view, not a trial finding. It fits the pressure Lilly already faces, where growing tirzepatide sales now come with lower prices and pill rivals. The tally gives no prices or launch dates for the Chinese duals, so any effect on supply in China remains a forecast.

Dosing interval is where the next split may come. RAY1225 and Gan and Lee's bofanglutide, a GLP-1 mono agonist, are given every two weeks, and bofanglutide reported a one year figure in the same band as the weekly duals. Its GRADUAL-2 trial tests it head to head against semaglutide. Oral pills form a separate tier. Orforglipron reported 11.2% at week 72 in ATTAIN-1, and three once daily Chinese pills landed between about 10% and 12.5% at 44 to 52 weeks. Those pills are small molecules, not peptides, but they shape what an injection must offer beyond depth of weight loss. On our reading, the duals will need clean tolerability data or a longer interval to stand apart.

Conclusion

The three Chinese obesity drugs under NMPA review move nothing on our board yet, because none has a decision. What they show is a crowded GLP-1 and GIP class in China, with results that look alike once trial design is taken into account. The next checkpoints are the NMPA decisions, full Phase 3 papers with placebo arms and safety data, and Kailera's KaiNETIC global programme, which the tally lists as a 2028 checkpoint. This is research coverage, not medical advice.